TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report Shows the London Market Under Strain as House Prices Fall 8.4% this Quarter
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The TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report, a quarterly audit of the UK housing market, reveals that the London property bubble may well be on the verge of bursting as house prices in the Capital show a significant drop this quarter. The average house price in inner London fell by 8.4% compared to the last quarter to £761k, suggesting that the inflated asking prices the Capital has enjoyed in recent years are no longer sustainable in this economy.
Although the slowdown in London has had a negative impact on average house prices across the UK, which fell by 1.9% this quarter to £293k, the UK property market is showing signs of stabilising after a tumultuous 2016. In fact, compared to the same quarter last year, prices are up by 1.5% from £289k to £293k and exchanges are up by 15.2%, suggesting that the unpredictable market that emerged in the wake of the Brexit vote is starting to calm down.
Colin Bradshaw, Chief Customer Officer at TwentyCi comments: ”While the Capital continues to grow in terms of exchanges, the 8.4% fall in house price compared to Q2 is significant. This may be a side effect of Brexit, which is likely to have had more impact on London as an international market. However, the positive outlook across the UK compared to this time last year suggests that the volatile market is subsiding as people begin to experience ‘Brexit fatigue’ and get on with their lives.”
Independent Property Market Analyst & Commentator Kate Faulkner says: “It was predicted, and TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report data confirms, a slowdown in price growth year-on-year. This isn’t a surprise; it follows double digit annual growth in economically strong areas which is now abating. This, together with the Brexit shock of last year reducing confidence in the short term, is likely to be the reason why exchanges are actually up year-on-year, despite a slower market.
“In a less active market we also tend to see that buyers and sellers are more serious and less voyeuristic. It will be interesting to see if this is still the case in the next quarter, or if we end the year with slower growth and fewer transactions.”
Other key findings from the The TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report are:
Greater London and South fare worst: Scotland and Wales have seen the greatest growth in exchanges with 30% uplift year-on-year. The South West has seen the steepest decline in exchanges (-6% YOY), while exchanges have risen in the South East and Greater London at a lower rate than the rest of the country (7% and 9% YOY respectively). Interestingly, the East of England is the only region to buck the summer slowdown with 6% growth for the quarter.
Growth driven by the top end of the market: Although this quarter has seen 6.2% fewer home moves overall, there has been an increase in the number of exchanges for homemovers aged 66+, and also those in the higher income brackets. The latter correlates with continued growth this quarter for sales of properties over £750k.
Online continues to gain market share: The shift towards using online-only estate agents is continuing resulting in a 19% increase in market share year-on-year. However, they still represent 5.4% of the market overall.
The TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report, created by life event data firm TwentyCi, is believed to be the biggest, most comprehensive report of its kind, drawing from 29 billion qualified data points to create a factual view on 99.6% of all home moves across the UK.
To see the full TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report in more detail, which includes monthly changes in exchanges, fall-throughs and property withdrawn, regional figures, property types and price bands, as well as demographic data such as Homemover segments and household income bands, please visit www.homemoverreport.com.
All data is based on Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016 year-on-year comparison unless otherwise stated.
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Editor’s notes – what is different about the TwentyCi Property & Homemover Report?
TwentyCi is a life event data company that provides intelligence into the events in consumer lives which act as purchase triggers, such as moving home, having a baby, buying a car or retiring. TwentyCi has been managing data for major advertisers like HJ Heinz and ATS Euromaster as well as many leading estate agents for over 15 years. TwentyCi holds the UK’s biggest and richest resource of factual life event data including the largest, most comprehensive source of homemover data compiled from more than 29 billion qualified data points. It works with advertisers and their agencies to create contextually targeted marketing programmes that cut through by reaching consumers at the exact moment that they need a company’s product or service, through the best media channel for that individual. For more information visit www.twentyci.co.uk.
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