An Intensive 10 - Day Training Course on the Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products.
Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products: A Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting
PR-Inside.com: 2018-06-14 11:18:32
Crude oil is the world’s most actively traded commodity, accounting for over 10% of total world trade. The reason for this large volume of trade in crude oil is two-fold: its key role in the world economy and the worldwide dependence on crude oil for meeting energy demands.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude oil market are two of the world’s most important crude oil markets. While Brent Crude oil is sourced from the North Sea and is primarily used in Europe, while WTI crude oil is refined mostly in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions in the United States of America, and is mainly supplied to the North American market. Although crude oil prices in these two markets have a significant interrelationships, for instance, price fluctuations in one market impact prices in the other, price movements in these markets are not always similar because of differing crude oil quality characteristics and the diverse locations they cater to.
A fluctuation in crude oil prices may significantly impact a nation’s economy. Forecasts assist in minimizing such risks arising from the uncertainty surrounding future crude oil prices. To this end, it is critical to engage in prediction exercises modeled for forecasting crude oil prices. Although many business practitioners and researchers have attempted to develop various forecasting methods to predict crude oil prices, it is extremely difficult to design a model that captures the various dimensions affecting future crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are strongly influenced by several factors, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth, political events, conflicts and wars, and financial policies relating to the US dollar (since crude oil is priced in US dollars), among others. Additionally, since crude oil sourced from different locations have varying qualities and transport costs at different rates are involved in shipping crude oil from one location to another, crude oil prices vary in different parts of the world. All these factors together contribute to strong fluctuations in the world market for crude oil, which has subsequently acquired the characteristics of complex non linearity, dynamic variation, and high irregularity.
This GLOMACS training course on Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products will develop an understanding of pricing, risk management, asset valuation and derivatives within the energy markets:
Learn to use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
Manage and optimize your organization’s energy risk exposure
Learn to estimate and calculate volatility in energy prices
Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants
To find out more about GLOMACS training courses, or to discuss the “Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products” with one of our Consultants, please do not hesitate in contacting us.
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