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A Gold Price Forecast for 2019 by MIEX 2019-01-11 10:39:01

A Gold Price Forecast for 2019 by MIEX

Richard Lin

Global Investment Research division of MIEX has released their Gold Price Forecast for 2019, which is their focus of their research this year. The investment opportunities for Gold in 2018 were not obvious. However, in the third quarter, Gold Price had a significant increase due to the sink of US stocks market. Gold thus soared at the end of last year.

Strong U.S. dollar had a great impact on the price increase of Gold. What we need to pay attention is that Jerome Powell turned dovish, making most of analysts being bearish on U.S. Dollar. Therefore, analysts are very bullish on gold in this year.

The US Federal Reserve insist on raising interest rates. The market is worried about the economic downturn or even recession of the US economy. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the US federal government's suspension of operations has not been eliminated, and hedge funds have flowed to gold. Gold futures have already reached $1,290. Although the Fed insisted on raising interest rates, the yield on Treasury bill has not risen, reflecting investors' concerns about the long-term economic condition in the United States.

The tension between countries is still high. Trade war, Brexit, and other affairs are still unsolved. The situation of foreign affairs can change drastically. Funds are anticipated to flow to gold if global crisis emerges. In the current circumstances, institutional investors and funds would incline building up gold long position. In short term, the $1300 level above is significant resistance but it looks as if the market is trying to build up enough momentum to continue to go higher. The US dollar is on its back foot, so is very likely that we could get that boost needed.

If the Federal Reserve slow down the pace of interest rate, Gold Price can increase dramatically. Most foreign investment banks expect gold prices to rise to $1,300 in 2019. In conclusion, taking into account of all these factors, MIEX forecast the price range of Gold this year would between $1270 and $1380.

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