2009-01-08 17:57:03 -
United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2008 - a new market research report on http://www.companiesandmarkets.com www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/United-States- ..
The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.87% of North American regional oil demand by 2012, while contributing 65.63% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached 23.00mn b/d in 2007. It is set to rise to around 23.04mn b/d by 2012. In terms of natural gas, North America in
2007 consumed 747bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 826bcm targeted for 2012, representing 10.6% growth. Production of 730bcm in 2007 should rise to 733bcm in 2012, which implies net imports rising to some 93bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2007 was 87.42%, while it provided 74.82% of production. By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87.26%, with 74.35% of production.
In Q208, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged just under US$115 per barrel up around 24% from the Q108 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$127 on May 22, slipping back towards US$121/bbl later in the month. In June 2008, we assumed an average of around US$120, to deliver our quarterly estimate of US$114.98/bbl. The estimated Q208 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$118.63 for Brent, US$119.61 for WTI and US$115.89/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole have been revised upwards from the last quarterly report.
We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$106 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$81 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$109.71, WTI averaging US$110.64/bbl, and Urals at US$106.88/bbl.
US real GDP growth is now estimated by BMI at 1.2% for 2008, down from 2.2% in 2007. We are assuming an average annual 2.5% growth in 2008-12. Average US oil and liquids production is now estimated at 7.08mn b/d in 2008. By 2012, we are forecasting output of 7.35mn b/d. Our estimate for 2008 US oil demand is now a lower 20.20mn b/d, thanks to the impact of higher prices on consumption.
We now see US oil consumption hitting 20.71mn b/d by 2012. This would require crude imports of 13.36mn b/d.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in US oil production of 14.1%, with output peaking at 7.92mn b/d in 2017. Given oil consumption forecast to increase by 4.5%, imports ease from 13.82mn b/d in 2007 to 13.79mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should rise from the 2007 level of 546bcm to 570bcm in 2018. Demand is forecast to rise from 653bcm to 747bcm, requiring net imports rising to 177bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and LNG. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Our long-term political rating is 85.2, well above the global average of 64.0, and just below the Developed Markets average of 86.4, but well beneath Canadas 93.3. Our long-term economic rating is 71.2, which compares with a global average of 59.1, the Developed Markets average of 72.2 and again puts the US well behind Canada (80.9). Our business environment rating is 75.2, which is the thirdhighest of the Developed Markets group. The US is a de-regulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britains BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
