2010-09-08 13:10:08 -
Switzerland Business Forecast Report Q4 2010 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
Conditions in Switzerland are favourable on both the economic and political front. The country is emerging from a global financial crisis-induced recession in 2009 and is well on track for a solid economic expansion over the course of 2010. Furthermore, while we believe the Swiss economy will slow in 2011 as base effects peter out and global headwinds increase, we nevertheless see it remaining on an expansionary footing. Indeed, over the long term, we see Swiss real GDP growth averaging 2.1% per annum - a decent pace of expansion given that Switzerland´s economy is already highly developed with average GDP per capita estimated at US $63,579 in 2009.
Politically, we see Switzerland remaining stable. Such stability is seen on the
foreign relations front. Switzerland has a long-held history of insulation from external political strife. We see this state of affairs prevailing, with the recent improvement in relations with Libya removing a rare source of conflict. In our view, this is a positive development as it allows Switzerland to more easily advance its strategic (ie economic) interests in Libya and the surrounding region. T he near-term economic outlook is very encouraging. We see the Swiss economy bouncing back convincingly in 2010, growing by 2.6% as compared with a 1.5% contraction in 2009. This recovery will be led by improved private consumption and renewed demand for Swiss exports. While we acknowledge that global headwinds will see Swiss growth slow to 1.8% in 2011, we believe the overall economy remains in good health. This is very much reflected in the state of Swiss public finances, which remain extremely robust. Indeed, the nation´s finances are characterised by balanced budgets and sustainable debt levels.
O ne result of Switzerland´s sound fundamentals is strong demand for the nation´s currency, the franc. Indeed, the Swiss National Bank has had to intervene substantially in foreign exchange markets though H110 in order to prevent the franc rising to a level where Swiss export competitiveness is hurt. However, we believe that the scope for such massive intervention is becoming increasingly limited, while Swiss exports continue to hold up well due to their high value-added - we therefore expect the franc to remain a strong global currency into the medium term.
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