2011-12-20 03:59:34 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Slovenia Freight Transport Report 2012"

BMI View: Easing Into Steady Growth

Air freight is set to lead the way in terms of sector by sector growth in 2012, although it is small by European standards and therefore relatively volatile. Tonnage growth will rise by more than 8.2% in 2012, down from the impressive double-digit growth of 2011 (27.2%) but an improvement on the recession-dominated 2008 and 2009 (-34.6% and -31.7% respectively). The road and rail freight sectors will see negligible growth in 2012, (3.6% and 1.6% respectively), while the Port of Koper will see steady year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of around 3% over our 2012-2016 forecast period.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/283558_slovenia_freight_transport_report_201 ..


At the time of writing in October 2011, the eurozone debt crisis appears to be

entering its final stage. Before too long we will find out whether the eurozone will break apart or if policymakers will come together and fast-track deeper fiscal integration of the single currency bloc. This would ultimately require beefing up the current EUR440bn European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) to at least EUR1trn and introducing a centralised debt issuing body. With fiscal integration currently overshadowed by negotiations over collateral for future bailout funds, we believe that time is fast running out for policymakers to take decisive measures to prevent a break-up of the euro.

Domestically speaking, according to the most recent data released by the Bank of Slovenia, the country's current account deficit actually slipped back into surplus over the course of the first half of 2011, to the tune of EUR30.5mn. This compared to a deficit of EUR185.1mn during the corresponding period of 2010. While we still expect to see a deficit by the end of the year, given that macroeconomic conditions should continue to stabilise and demand for imports improve, we have been prompted to revise down our 2011 current account deficit forecast to EUR0.41bn (1.1% of GDP) from EUR0.64bn (1.7%) previously. This is the same size as the deficit recorded in 2010.

Headline Industry Data

* 2012 air freight tonnage is forecast to increase 8.21% year-on-year to 8,360 tonnes;
* 2012 rail freight tonnage is forecast to rise 1.62% to 16.63mn tonnes;
* 2012 road freight tonnage throughput is predicted to grow 3.64% to 86.33mn tonnes;
* 2012 port of Koper tonnage growth is expected to increase by 3.99% to 16.49mn tonnes;
* Total trade in 2012 is forecast to increase by 4.50%.


Key Industry Trends

Reform Needed To Cut Transit Times

Train transit times stand to benefit from a vast decrease if much-needed reforms are put in place for the rail sector. That is the conclusion of the World Bank, which reported in June 2011 that 25 hours could be knocked off transit times between Slovenia's capital Ljubljana and Istanbul in Turkey.

Adria Airways To Receive Bailout

Slovenia's flag carrier Adria Airways is to be bailed out by the state in a deal worth EUR50mn, according to the country's development and EU affairs minister Mitja Gaspari. Global heavyweights such as Qatar Airways and Emirates, among others, are expected to show an interest.

Slovenia Seeks Stronger Indian Links

The Port of Koper featured at the top of Slovenia's Prime Minister Borut Pahor's agenda when he visited India over three days in June 2011. Central to the visit was the discussion of future cooperation between the two countries, as the Slovenian delegation attempted to extol the virtues of the Slovenian port over the more popular European ports of Rotterdam and Bremen.

Key Risks To Outlook

A World Bank report from June 2011 highlighted that much-needed rail reforms were re to reduce train transit times. Whether or not such reforms are adopted, however, is another matter. Report author Carolina Monsalve explained: 'Those countries that aspire to be members of the EU need to understand that moving quickly on these reforms will greatly improve their chances of receiving a positive opinion from the EU regarding rail transport regulations, as well as boost their growth.'

A potential maritime freight link-up with India, discussed during a diplomatic visit by Solvenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor, could boost future trade between the two countries. About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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