Research and Markets: The Wireless Market in the Philippines Will Have 90.7 Million Subscribers in 2013 with PLDT Taking Market Share of 57.1%

2009-12-07 02:01:40 -

Research and Markets ( www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0d8487/4q09_philippines_m : ) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "4Q09 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.

Wireless market in the Philippines will have 90.7 million subscribers in 2013 with PLDT taking market share of 57.1%.

IEMR's Mobile Operator Forecast on the Philippines provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Philippines wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provides five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provides quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for the Philippines include: The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT), Globe Telecom,

Inc., and Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc.
(Digitel). The publisher's Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. The publisher's forecasts are based on the publisher's proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit wireless subscriber growth continues in the Philippines +16.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009.

ARPU growth levels continue to register in negative territory.

- 10.5% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Data ARPUs are also declining in the Philippines Industry average Data ARPU growth in 2Q.2009 was -6.1%.

Negative EBITDA growth at Globe Telecom in the latest quarter.

- 3.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR's Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in the Philippines will rise to 90.7 million in 2013.

- Given the latest quarter numbers, the publisher forecast that total mobile subscribers in the Philippines will increase from 65.7 million in 2008 to 90.7 million in 2013.

- The largest mobile operator in the country will continue to be PLDT.
The publisher expects that its subscriber base will increase from 35.2 million in 2008 to 51.8 million in 2013.

- The publisher also estimates that Globe Telecom will have 28.2 million subscribers and Digitel will have 10.8 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

PLDT's subscriber market share will be rising over the next five years.

- The publisher's model is predicting that PLDT's subscriber market share will increase from 53.6% in 2008 to 57.1% in 2013.

- Also, The publisher expects that Digitel's share of total subscribers will rise from 8.7% in 2008 to 11.9% in 2013.

- Instead, The publisher forecast that Globe Telecom's share will decline to 31.1% in 2013.

ARPUs will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013.

- The publisher thinks that ARPU levels in the Philippines will not be declining as dramatically as they did in the previous years.

- The publisher's model forecasts that PLDT's monthly ARPU will fall from PHP 218 in 2008 to PHP 186 in 2013.

- Globe Telecom's monthly ARPU will fall from PHP 201 to PHP 157 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Globe Telecom will enjoy higher EBITDA margins than PLDT over the next five years.

- Profitability, measured by EBITDA margins, is very high in the Philippines wireless market compared to many other wireless markets around the world.

- The publisher forecast that Globe Telecom's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than PLDT's. The publisher's model predicts that EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) at PLDT and Globe Telecom will be approximately 55.3% and 63.1% respectively in 2013.

Companies Mentioned.

- The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT)
- Globe Telecom, Inc.

- Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel)

For more information visit www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0d8487/4q09_philippines_m :

Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Manager press@researchandmarkets.com : mailto:press@researchandmarkets.com U.S.

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