2009-10-15 03:32:02 -
Research and Markets ( www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b3c954/3q09_philippines_m : 
) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report " 3Q09 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013 : " to their offering.
Total wireless subscribers in the Philippines to reach 89.8 million in 2013 with PLDT's market share declining to 50.1%
Mobile Operator Forecast on the Philippines provides over
50 operational and financial metrics for the Philippines wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011.
Operators covered for the Philippines include: The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT), Globe Telecom, Inc., and Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Strong wireless subscriber growth continues in the Philippines
- +22.0% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU growth levels continue to register in negative territory
- -12.6% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Data ARPUs are also declining in the Philippines
- Industry average Data ARPU growth in 1Q.2009 was -13.1%
PLDT and Globe Telecom enjoy strong EBITDA margins and positive EBITDA growth in the latest quarter
- +3.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is IEMR's Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in the Philippines will rise to 89.8 million in 2013
- Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total mobile subscribers in the Philippines will increase from 65.7 million in 2008 to 89.8 million in 2013.
- The largest mobile operator in the country will continue to be PLDT.
We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 35.2 million in 2008 to 44.9 million in 2013.
- We also estimate that Globe Telecom will have 34.6 million subscribers and Digitel will have 10.2 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
PLDT will be losing its market share to Globe Telecom and Digitel over the next five years
- Our model is predicting that PLDT's subscriber market share in Philippines will decline from 53.6% in 2008 to 50.1% in 2013. On the other hand, given Globe Telecom's good execution, we think that Globe Telecom's market share will rise from 37.6% in 2008 to 38.6% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that Digitel's share of total subscribers will increase from 8.7% in 2008 to 11.3% in 2013.
ARPUs will continue to decline slightly from 2009 to 2013
- We think that ARPU levels in the Philippines will not be declining as dramatically as they did in the previous years.
- Our model forecasts that PLDT's monthly ARPU will fall from PHP 207 in 2008 to PHP 191 in 2013.
- Globe Telecom's monthly ARPU will fall from PHP 201 to PHP 161 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
PLDT's EBITDA margins to improve over the next five years
- Profitability, measured by EBITDA margins, is very high in the Philippines wireless market. We forecast that the PLDT's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 63.4% in 2008 to 68.2% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that Globe Telecom's EBITDA margin will decline slightly from 62.8% in 2008 to 60.7% in 2013.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
- The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT)
- Globe Telecom, Inc.
- Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel) (estimates only) (For Digitel, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: Mar 2003 - Mar 2011
For more information visit
www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b3c954/3q09_philippines_m :
Research and MarketsLaura Wood, Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com : mailto:press@researchandmarkets.com U.S.
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