2009-11-25 16:29:02 -

Research and Markets ( www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4120b6/4q09_malaysia_mobi : ) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "4Q09 Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.

IEMR's Mobile Operator Forecast on Malaysia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Malaysian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. The publisher provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. The publisher also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Malaysia include: Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd., Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad, and DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd. The publisher's Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through

regular updates.

IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. The publisher's forecasts are based on The publisher's proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary


Strong subscriber growth continues in Malaysia's mobile operator space +14.6% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009


ARPU levels continue to decline in Malaysia -13.2% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber growth remains positive +3.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009


Maxis and Celcom enjoy positive EBITDA growth +1.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009


So what is IEMR's Forecast?


Total wireless subscribers in Malaysia to reach 41.9 million in 2013



- Given the latest quarter numbers, The publisher forecast that total subscribers in Malaysia will increase from 27.1 million in 2008 to 41.9 million in 2013.


- The publisher's forecasting model predicts that the numbers of subscribers at Maxis, Celcom, DiGi will reach 17.3 million, 13.8 million, and 10.7 million, respectively in 2013.

Market shares will remain stable from 2009 to 2013



- The publisher are not predicting significant changes in market shares over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.


- The publisher's model forecasts that market shares (by subscribers) of Maxis, Celcom, and DiGi will be approximately 41.4%, 33.0%, and 25.6% respectively in 2013.

Declining trend in ARPUs will continue over the next five years in Malaysia's mobile operator space



- The publisher's model predicts that all operators will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years.


- The publisher forecast that Maxis's monthly ARPU will fall from MYR 62.75 in 2008 to MYR 53.14 in 2013. Celcom's monthly ARPU will also decline to approximately MYR 45.01 in 2013.


- The publisher expect that DiGi's monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 58.89 in 2008 to MYR 52.17 in 2013.

EBITDA margins of Celcom and DiGi will become higher than Maxis's over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013


- The publisher expect that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 41% - 43% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.


- The publisher think that Maxis's EBITDA margin will be falling over the next five years. EBITDA margins at Maxis, Celcom, and DiGi will be 37.7%, 44.9%, and 45.8% respectively in 2013, according to The publisher's model.'


Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast



- Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd.


- Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad
- DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011


- PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
- SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
- SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
- NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
- POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
- PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
- MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
- DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
- VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
- VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
- MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
- MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
- SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
- HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE


For more information visit www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4120b6/4q09_malaysia_mobi :



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