Sarah Palin: 40% Chance to Take Over as President // McCain Has Only 80% Odds of Living Out A Presidency

John F. Banzhaf III, Professor of Public Interest Law, George Washington University Law school

2008-08-31 20:24:29 - The chances that Vice President Sarah Palin would have to take over from President John McCain if they were elected could be as high as 40%, since McCain has about a 20% chance of dying in office, and a much higher risk of becoming disabled from a variety of conditions, including a stroke or Alzheimer's, both diseases which can impair judgment and where the risks increase very rapidly with age, notes Professor John Banzhaf of George Washington University.

Male former smokers who are 75 years of age have a greater than 50% chance of dying during their next ten years, whereas those who are currently 70 have a 10-year risk of death over 35%.

McCain, who is 72, has a statistical risk of death somewhere between these two figures, which Banzhaf estimates could be as high as a 20% chance of dying during the next 5 years.

These figures do not include his increased risk of death from his multiple bouts of deadly melanoma skin cancer, a condition which could reoccur, and which recent research shows also increases the risks of developing other types of cancer.

Naturally, the odds that he will suffer from some disabling condition while in office are much higher, with studies suggesting that the disability rate of persons 70-74 is almost 40%, and among those 75-79, the rate approaches 50%.

While a president's access to excellent around-the-clock medical care and monitoring might tend to reduce these odds, the enormous stresses of the presidency - far greater than those experienced by most men over the age of 70 - could also increase the odds.

One potentially disabling disease McCain could face is Alzheimer's, where advancing age is the major risk factor, and the odds of coming down with the disease double every five years after the age of 65.

Unfortunately, the minor memory impairments and other mental problems often present during the early stages of Alzheimer's might be barely noticeable and of little consequence in a typical 72-year-old man enjoying retirement or working on a part- or even full-time basis, but they could be catastrophic in a president who must make crucial decisions regarding war, peace, and economics, negotiate with other world leaders, etc.

Another major risk for McCain is a stroke, the third leading cause of death in the U.S., and a major cause of serious long-term disability. The chances of someone having a stroke increase very rapidly with age, with two-thirds of all strokes happening to people over 65.

Stroke risk doubles with each decade past age 55, and recent studies show that the risk is substantially higher for former heavy smokers, even if they quit many years ago as McCain reportedly did. In addition to causing physical disability which could affect McCain's ability to maintain a busy schedule, strokes can impair mental functioning, as well as the ability to communicate.

The potential health risks facing Barack Obama, age 47, are very different. Male former smokers who are 45 years of age have less than a 5% chance of dying within the next ten year.

Even if he is classified as a current smoker -- although he reportedly has quit with, at most, an occasional relapse -- his 10-year death risk is still under 10%. Banzhaf estimates his chances of dying while in office are only about 4%.

The 25th Amendment provides for the vice president to assume the duties of the president if he has a disability which makes him "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office." It further provides that, if the president does not himself recognize that a physical or mental disability renders him unable, that decision may be made by the Vice President and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments.

This might occur, for example, if a president came down with Alzheimer's but refused -- perhaps because of the disease and/or his reluctance to accept the diagnosis -- to agree to relinquish his powers.

John Banzhaf is a professor at George Washington University known in part for his statistical-type analyses ("The Banzhaf Index") as well as his very successful work against smoking.

He stresses that he does not express or even imply any opinions or preferences regarding the four major-party candidates for high office, and that this analysis is designed simply to highlight some statistical factors regarding the candidates.

PROFESSOR JOHN F. BANZHAF III
Professor of Public Interest Law
George Washington University Law School
FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor
FELLOW, World Technology Network
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