Indonesia Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008 is the Comprehensive Source for All Your Data Needs on This Industry

2008-04-15 03:47:35 -

www.researchandmarkets.com - Research and Markets (www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c88691) has announced the addition of "Indonesia Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008" to their offering.

The Indonesia Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's commercial banking industry.

From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions prevailing in other sectors.

Indonesia's overall CBBER is 58.1. The equivalent figures for the US and the Eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4, respectively. Within the region, Indonesia's figure may be compared with Hong Kong's impressive top score of 79.5, and Sri Lanka's score of 28.4, the lowest in the region. In relation to other countries surveyed by BMI, Indonesia is a country where total assets are fairly small; the likely growth in total assets is reasonably tame; the expected growth in client loans is moderate; and there is very little potential for banks to earn fees from distribution of insurance products and other activities. Indonesia has a midrange CBBER as compared to other Asia Pacific countries surveyed by BMI. Instrumental in keeping this figure down is Indonesia's low per-capita GDP figure, comparable with the poorer countries in the Asia- Pacific region.

GDP grew by 6.3% in Q207, the country's fastest year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion in two years. Monetary policy has been supportive of economic growth, as has a resilient export sector. Even though growth is forecast to reach its fastest rate in a decade this year, a weak infrastructure still hampers Indonesia's potential, and threatens the country's competitiveness abroad. Indonesia's economy is firmly on track to meet our year-end GDP estimate of 6.2% in 2007. Bank Indonesia (BI)'s five interest rate cuts in 2007 have been supportive of growth. Leading indicators suggest that Indonesians are taking out more loans to finance purchases (cement sales rose by 11% y-o-y in July 2007, while motorcycle and car sales rose by 13% and 60%, respectively), and as a result both local and foreign companies, eager to get in on the action, have upped investments in the region.

While we hold a positive view of Indonesia's economic fundamentals, we caution that there will be some fallout resulting from the current global credit crisis. The US sub-prime market fallout will render fundraising activity, be it in the public or private sector, much more costly for high-risk economies like Indonesia's. There is a strong chance, therefore, that growth could have been affected in H207. Overall however, our projections are playing out, and with no major policy changes expected to be implemented ahead of the 2009 general elections, we find no reason to adjust our long-term economic outlook for Indonesia. Therefore we continue to forecast a gradual deceleration in the GDP growth rate to 5.6% at the end of our forecast period (2007-2012).

Contents:

Executive Summary

Table: Levels (IDRbn)

Table: Levels (US$bn)

Table: Levels At 30 September 2006

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q108

Table: Projected Levels (IDRbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Key Issues

Changes to the Commercial Banking Forecast

Indonesia Commercial Banking SWOT

Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating

Table: Indonesia - Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings

Table: Asia Pacific Commercial Banking Business Environment Rankings

International Context

Lending Trends and External Accounts

Table: Comparison of Lending Trends and External Accounts, End 2006

Table: Comparison of Lending Trends and External Accounts

Total Assets, Client Loans and Client Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans and Client Deposits (US$bn)

Per-Capita Deposits

Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2006

Macroeconomic Trends and Developments

Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity

Industry Forecast Sce20

Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)

Table: Projected Levels (IDRbn)

Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)

Comment on Forecasts

Comment on Trends

Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset and Loan/GDP Ratios, Late 2006

Banks' Bond Portfolios

Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2006

Competitive Landscape

Market Protagonists

Methodology

Basis of Projections

Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating

Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators and Rationale

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

For more information visit www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c88691

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
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