2009-10-01 11:31:04 -
Philippines Telecommunications Report Q4 2009 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/philippines-te ..
The only significant revision to our forecast for the quarter was for fixed line, after the latest figures for 2008 were shown to have fallen over the year, marking the first time the number of lines has fallen. At the end of 2008, there were 3.905mn lines, a 0.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline. This was perhaps unsurprising, given the prevalence of mobile handsets, which have been subject to heavy reductions to pricing.
For PLDT, the market incumbent, which has seen its share of the fixed-line market decline, the sector still represents an important revenue contributor. Accounting for over one-third of revenues (35%) as of Q109, the operator launched a national service offering unlimited calls to all areas in an effort to buoy
demand. The Call All promotion offers unlimited calls in the Philippines for an additional PHP250 (US$5.27) on the users fixed-line bill. Those subscribing to Call All are provided with a Landline Plus SIM for a fixed wireless connection. Its Landline Plus subscriptions continue to rise, reaching 134,294 as of Q109 (a rise from 125,621 in 2008).
For these reasons, we continue to forecast that the market will rise, albeit at a slow pace, so that by the end of 2009, we estimate that there will be 3.93mn lines. However, penetration rates will have begun to fall overall, reaching 4.3% at the end of 2009. The rate will drop further to 4.2% by 2013.
The mobile sector put in a stellar Q109 performance, reporting above average quarterly net additions of 3.808mn, above the quarterly average of 3.05mn net additions in 2008. By the end of the quarter, the total subscriber base is estimated at 71.864mn, which will be led largely by demand from the prepaid sector.
This will be encouraged further by the re-launch of PLDT-owned Red Mobile in July 2009, focused on prepaid voice and data calls, all offered at heavily reduced prices. However, the emphasis on prepaid will also create a further decline in the blended average revenue per user (ARPU). Having reached PHP175.1 in 2008, marking a 13.7% y-o-y fall, it is estimated that by the end of 2009, it will have dropped further to PHP129.7.
Greater maturity in the telecoms market and a lower score for country risk have led to a drop in the countrys position from 11th to 12th place in the latest quarterly business environment ratings table.
This places it just ahead of Cambodia, which came 0.4 points below the countrys total telecoms score at 49.5.
