2008-09-12 23:59:01 -
Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2008 - a new market research report on www.companiesandmarkets.com www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/Pakistan-Oil-a ..
The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.59% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2012, while providing 0.91% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.56mn b/d in 2007. It should rise to around 29.38mn b/d by 2012.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 436bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2007, with demand of 591bcm targeted for 2012, representing growth of 35.57% between 2007 and 2012. Production of an estimated 354bcm in 2007 should reach 455bcm in 2012, but implies net imports rising from an estimated 82bcm per annum to 136bcm. Pakistans share of gas consumption in 2007 was an estimated 7.75%, while its share of production was 9.53%.
By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 8.63%, with the country accounting for 8.58% of supply. In Q108, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$92.64 per barrel (/bbl) up around 9% from the Q407 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$102 by the middle of March, slipping back towards US$96/bbl later in the month. The estimated Q108 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$96.54 for Brent, US$97.31 for WTI and US$93.44/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery).
Our projections for 2008 as a whole are revised upwards from BMIs last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$81/bbl for 2008, compared with the US$74 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$84.71/bbl, WTI averaging US$85.63/bbl and Urals at US$81.88/bbl. Pakistans real GDP growth for 2008 is now forecast by BMI at 6.6%, down from an estimated 7.0% in 2007. In 2009-2010, growth is put at 6.7%, followed by 6.8% in 2011-2012. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of no more than 78,000b/d by 2012, with the country able to pump an estimated 69,000b/d in 2008.
Consumption is forecast to increase by around 4% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 466,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 388,000b/d by 2012. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 34bcm in 2006 to 51bcm by 2012. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Pakistan oil production of 20.3%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 55,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 54.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 590,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 34bcm in 2007 to a possible 45bcm by 2017-2018 (+33%). With demand growth of 107%, this requires imports rising to 25bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the Appendix of this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Pakistan now ranks equal fourth alongside the Philippines in BMIs newly revised Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average output growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country sits just ahead of China, but may not be able to keep the Asian powerhouse at bay for much longer. Pakistan ranks equal eighth alongside Thailand in BMIs updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its significant refinery capacity expansion plans, above-average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity. It is ahead of the Philippines and just behind Australia in the league table.
www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/Pakistan-Oil-a ..
