2008-11-03 22:00:11 - Although a widely-reported study shows that citizens in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia are the most likely to cast a decisive vote in this particular presidential election based upon current polling data, this does not mean that citizens in these states have the greatest voting power.

ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iA4MRezQq9V8k54OBj1Pym6P2fkwD94729BO ..
TEXT OF STUDY: www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/mlm/probdecisive.pdf

On the contrary, the Electoral College gives voters in California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania the most "voting power" - a term which measures their chances of casting a decisive vote independent of the polls in each state - says Professor John Banzhaf who developed the "Banzhaf

Index" of voting power.
"BANZHAF INDEX" GENERALLY: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banzhaf_power_index AND www.cs.unc.edu/~livingst/Banzhaf/
ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTING POWER : banzhaf.net/ec2000.html

The distinction is very important, says Banzhaf. "Each Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court can cast 1 vote, so they have a mathematically equal chance of affecting the outcome of each case before them, even though some may tend to cast 'swing votes.'

This equality of voting power would change if the chief justice were given 2 votes instead of 1, or were given a veto power, but voting power does not change depending on the conservative-liberal breakdown on the Court at any given time.

Similarly, some voters have a higher probability of casting a decisive vote if their state happens this year to have an almost equal percentage of Obama and McCain supporters, but, with current populations distributions, citizens in California have over three times the chances of casting a decisive vote in their state (compared to voters in some other states) regardless of how the political landscape in each state - the Republican-Democratic divide - may change from time to time.

"This means that a savvy candidate will spend far more time and money trying to change votes in California than in New Hampshire if both have equally tight polling numbers, because a shift in all of California's electoral votes is far more important than a similar shift in New Hampshire's smaller number of electoral votes."

For many years most people believed that citizens in the least populous states had the greatest voting power because each voter had a larger fractional electoral vote than residents in more populous states since each state has at least 3 electoral voters no matter how sparse its population.

But the original computer calculations of the distribution of voting power showed that the potential power to affect large blocs of electoral votes (as in California) far outweighed the effect of having a larger fractional electoral vote (as in Montana), says Banzhaf.

"The computer calculations now being reported update my original analysis by factoring in the closeness of the election in each state.

But since the propensities of voters change over time, and 'safe states' become 'swing states' and visa versa, it is important for both voters and Members of Congress considering replacing the Electoral College remember that the College gives far great voting power to citizens in the most populous states, regardless of shifting political polls," says Banzhaf.

PROFESSOR JOHN F. BANZHAF III
Professor of Public Interest Law
George Washington University Law School
FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor
FELLOW, World Technology Network
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