2008-10-02 20:39:51 - Paul Newman's death from lung cancer highlights the risk that former smokers who are now senior citizens face from lung cancer and other lung diseases; a risk which helps boost the odds to about 40% that, if Senator John McCain is elected president, Governor Sarah Palin would succeed him during his first term, says Professor John Banzhaf of George Washington University. http://www.pr-inside.com/succession-odds-hang-over-big-vp-r841147.htm

Newman, who just died from lung cancer, was once considered a heavy smoker or even a "chain smoker," but he reportedly quit more than 30 years ago.

Thus he, and probably most older Americans, assumed that the risks caused by their smoking were now minimal. Indeed, Newman himself quitted: "It's absolutely amazing that I survived all the booze and smoking and the cars and the career.'

But about 215,000 Americans will by shocked to learn this year that they have lung cancer -- a disease which claims more lives each year than all other major cancers combined -- and a majority will then be dead within 12 months.

Interestingly, nearly half of those diagnosed with lung cancer will be former smokers,

many of whom quit decades ago, and who probably do not realize the very high risks they still face from their former smoking.

Paul Newman was 83 when he died, while John McCain at 72 would be the older person to begin serving as president.

According to the most up-to-date tables of death risks related to smoking, a 75 year old man who is a former smoker has over a 50% chance of dying during the next ten years. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18544745 AND www.vaoutcomes.org/papers/Complex_Chart_Men.pdf

More importantly, his risk of dying from lung cancer is more than 8 times higher than that of a person who never smoked. In addition, former smokers also face a 8-fold increase in the risk of dying from COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease).

The lessons to be learned from Newman's death, says Banzhaf, are two-fold.

First, former smokers, even if they quit decades ago, should still get regular checkups for lung cancer to give them even a small chance of surviving this deadly and very painful disease if it were to strike them.

Second, younger people should not start smoking if they want to avoid the fate of Newman and millions of other Americans who, while otherwise in apparently good health, are stuck by the most deadly and the most easily preventable cancer.

PROFESSOR JOHN F. BANZHAF III
Professor of Public Interest Law
George Washington University Law School
FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor
FELLOW, World Technology Network
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