2010-01-07 17:28:34 - New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "Jordan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010"

BMI has revised its extended forecast for Jordan's pharmaceutical and healthcare market for our Q309 report. We expect the total drug market to grow from US$370mn in 2008 to US$519mn by 2013, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.01%. The main drivers for growth include the continuing high volume medicine export activity, generated by Jordan's domestic drug manufacturers. Additionally, the epidemiological profile of Jordan indicates an increasing burden of obesity and diabetes-related disorders, which will drive spending in overall healthcare. According to the Jordanian Association of Pharmaceutical Manufactures (JAPM) drug exports in 2007 reached JOD460mn (US$647mn), rising to JOD500mn (US$704mn) by 2008; however, it also revealed that the global economic downturn will reduce demand for Jordanian medicines. BMI's

forecast indicates drug exports will rise in Jordan from a more moderate US$531mn in 2008 to US$1.32bn by 2013, representing a 20.0% CAGR. In line with the JAPM, we agree that the Jordanian pharmaceutical export industry is unlikely to reach its 2011 JOD1bn target. Jordan is the most popular destination for medical tourists within the Arab world and this sector has been steadily growing since 2006. The country's relatively cheap and high quality health services have been attracting patients from other Middle Eastern and North African countries including Yemen, Algeria, Iraq, Palestine and Sudan. We believe that boosting investment in this sector can open new markets with tourists from the US and Europe seeking lower cost medical procedures. In February 2009 Jordan held an international medical tourism congress with representatives from the Private Hospital Association (PHA) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The meeting aimed to develop new strategies to improve and expand the capacity of the private health sector while also seeking opportunities for growth from other markets. Regulatory policies are also being implemented to gain international quality accreditation to provide standardised protocols for global patients. Jordan's current medical tourism sector revenues are estimated to reach US$650mn by the end of 2009 and the country is keen to reach its ambitious target of US$1bn by 2012. We believe this is unlikely in light of the early stages of US and international interest and therefore expect a more modest outcome by this date. The Middle Eastern country has a relatively stable political environment with highly-qualified Arab doctors. In addition, its good relations with other neighbouring nations have ensured a sizable Arab patient interest for Jordanian medical expertise, in addition to an excellent reputation. According to details from a health tourism conference in Jordan during 2007, the private sector had 33.6% of the total hospital beds in the country, compared to 38.3% for the Ministry of Health-funded sector. In-patients contributed to over 70% of total private care costs, suggesting that invasive procedures that are expensive in other regions, including cardiovascular, joint replacements and cosmetic or corrective surgery, are the main reasons for choosing Jordanian healthcare services.

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