2010-02-10 04:03:41 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Malaysia Retail Report Q2 2010"

The Q110 BMI Malaysia Retail Report predicts that total retail sales will grow from an estimated US$33bn in 2009 to more than US$61bn by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable income and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Malaysia's nominal GDP was US$196bn in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 2.9% is predicted by BMI to 2014. With the population expected to increase by 7.9% over the period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise from US$7,140 in 2009 to US$11,023 by 2014. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,961 in 2009 to US$3,227 by the end of the forecast period. Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle-income country

by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in 2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM), urban households on average spent 1.8 times more than rural households) in 2004-2005. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 per month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to UN data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales. BMI estimates automotive sales at US$5.51bn in 2009, and forecasts that these will rise to US$7.05bn towards the end of the forecast period (+28%). Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are estimated at US$0.34bn in 2009, and are expected to increase to US$0.56bn by the end of the forecast period (+65%). Consumer electronics sales are predicted to rise from US$8.18bn in 2009 to US$10.54bn before the end of the forecast period (+29%). Aided by the Visit Malaysia campaign in 2007 - which marked the 50th anniversary of Malaysia's independence - the country recorded 20.9mn visitors in 2007, according to data published by Ministry of Tourism Malaysia (MTM). Tourism receipts amounted to MYR46.07bn (US$13.82bn). Tourist arrivals increased in 2008, by 5.5% to 22.05mn, surpassing the 21.5mn target set by the government under the Ninth Malaysia Plan for 2006-2010. Shopping is the second-highest contributor to the country's tourism receipts, and shopping revenue is expected to have increased by 30% to MYR16bn (US$4.6bn) in 2008. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2009 were an estimated US$2.26trn. China and India alone in 2009 accounted for more than 93% of regional retail sales, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is still expected to exceed 91%. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2009 to 2014 is put by BMI at 79%, or an annual average 12%. The Philippines should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Malaysia. For Malaysia, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.3% is expected to increase to 2.1% by 2014.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- www.fastmr.com/prod/48934_malaysia_retail_report_q2_2010.aspx

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