2010-02-10 17:02:24 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Indonesia Retail Report Q2 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research

The Q110 BMI Indonesia Retail Report predicts that the country's retail sales will grow from an estimated US$42bn in 2009 to more than US$82bn by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, an enormous and expanding population (the world's fourth largest), rising per capita incomes and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the substantial forecast growth in Indonesia's retail sales. Indonesia's nominal GDP was US$516.84bn in 2009. Average annual GDP growth of 4.8% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population increasing from 237.3mn in 2009 to an estimated 234.5mn 250.7mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 87% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$4,078. Our forecast

for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,283 in 2009 to US$2,221 by 2014. Employees in the formal sector have had their salaries rise by 20% since 1999, according to the Indonesian government, with the average wage standing at IDR2,412,000 (US$219) per month. These higher-income earners currently make up about 30% of the total workforce. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven, in large part, by the expansion of the organised retail market. BMI predicts that sales through these more modern and sophisticated outlets, which in 2009 accounted for an estimated 18.8% of the market, will nearly double to US$16.30bn by 2014. This 106% increase (more than 14% per annum) could lead to organised retail sales taking almost 20% of the overall market by 2014. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, which is still developing in Indonesia, is expected to see substantial growth, with BMI forecasting sales to rise by almost 95% to US$10.50bn in 2014. We estimate over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$1.12bn in 2009, with a forecast rise to US$1.89bn by the end of the period (+68.7%), while automotive sales - at an estimated US$5.87bn in 2009, are predicted to increase to US$8.25bn before the end of the forecast period (+40.7%). Consumer electronics sales are forecast to rise by 63.1%, from an estimated US$6.42bn in 2009 to US$10.47bn by the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2009 were an estimated US$2.26trn. China and India alone in 2009 accounted for more than 93% of regional retail sales, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is still expected to exceed 91%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2009-2014 is put by BMI at 79%, or an annual average 12%. The Philippines should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Malaysia. For Indonesia, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.9% is expected to rise to 2.0% by 2014.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- www.fastmr.com/prod/48894_indonesia_retail_report_q2_2010.aspx

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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