2010-02-06 18:19:59 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

The new Gabon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.41% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 1.96% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.65mn b/d in 2008. It should average 3.69mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 4.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 10.20mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated

6.54mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 7.70mn b/d by 2013. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues. As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 107bcm, with demand of 177bcm targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 211bcm in 2008 should reach 356bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 104bcm in 2008 to 179bcm by the end of the period. Gabon is neither a significant regional producer nor consumer of gas. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q1 2009 was an estimated US$45.78/bbl, down 13% from the US$52.51 recorded during the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little change to our view of oil market developments. BMI is forecasting an average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 by June. For 2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45% y-o-y). The BMI full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$53.73, WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009. For the whole of 2009, the BMI assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl, with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December 2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil in 2009, the BMI forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. Gabonese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 1.8% for 2009, down from 4.2% in 2008. We are assuming 2.9% growth in 2010 and 3.8% in 2011, followed by 3.5% in 2012 and 3.0% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 13,200b/d in 2008 to 16,900b/d in 2013. State oil company Société Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from an estimated 235,000b/d in 2008 to 230,000b/d in 2013. Gas production should reach 1bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 0.1bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports but no surplus gas to export. Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Gabon oil and gas liquids production of 11.3%, with volumes peaking at 242,000b/d in 2009, before falling steadily to 208,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 22,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise to 1bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 900% between 2008 and 2018, there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for exports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Gabon now occupies equal third place in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, alongside Nigeria. In spite of being just one point behind the Republic of Congo (RoC), it is no position to move higher over the medium term. The county's score benefits from healthy gas output growth prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country's risk environment is fragile, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. Angola should be able to overtake Gabon during the next few quarters. The country is near the bottom of the league table in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It is ranked eighth ahead of Angola thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.

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