2008-11-13 08:09:00 -
Japan Freight Transport Report Q4 2008 - a new market research report on http://www.companiesandmarkets.com
www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/Japan-Freight- ..
In early August, Japans new minister of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism, Sadakazu Tanigaki, said that the government would consider cutting expressway tolls to soften the impact of high petrol prices. The minister said he would also consider measures to support the trucking industry and isolated islands, both seen as hard-hit by rising energy costs. At the same time the four companies that succeeded Japan Highway Public Corp (JH) said they were initiating legal action against four former managers, including former JH vice president Michio Uchida, and 49 contractors, to recover funds that had been misappropriated between 2002 and 2004 in the construction of 126 bridges across the country. They said that since the scandal became public they had been
able to recover JPY261mn (US$2.4mn) from two contractors but that JPY8.68bn (US$79.9mn) was still outstanding. The latest BMI Japan Freight Transport Report now forecasts average annual growth of freight carried by road at 1.8% over the 2008- 2012 five-year forecast period, down from 2.3% across the preceding five years.
Our Japanese trucking forecast is based on various factors. Among them, the Japanese recovery is losing steam. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.8% over the next five years, after 2.1% in the preceding five. Second, the industry is mature and is unlikely in our view to open up significant new markets among domestic customers. While Japans growing trade with China is a positive, other freight modes will secure greatest advantage from that trend.
That said, we are relatively cautious over freight turnover forecasts for other transport modes. Fuel prices and safety concerns are holding back airfreight, but Japanese airports have reduced their very high landing fees. The shipping sector has been better placed, as witnessed by recent increases in profitability.
As a result of these adjustments, we now expect average annual growth in total freight turnover to be 2.0% over the 2008-2012 period. The operating environment is good, but not spectacular. Japan has a composite score of 62.8 out of a potential total of 100.0 in our freight transport rating. Japan scores highly for long-term economic and political risk, transport infrastructure growth and for the regulatory and competitive environment. But its overall score is lowered, due to weaker performances for freight growth and on the transport intensity index, which is a measure of foreign-trade dynamism. This is not unusual for a more developed economy like Japan, where growth rates are much more moderate.
According to our latest estimates, the total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$310.6bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 6.3% of Japans GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 4.03mn people, or 6.3% of the labour force, last year. We see the first figure falling marginally to 3.90mn by 2012, while as a proportion of the total labour force, employment in the industry will continue at the 6.3% level.
