2008-09-13 03:47:02 -
Hungary Tourism Report Q3 2008 - a new market research report on www.companiesandmarkets.com
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Tourism Overview
Recently released data show foreign visitor arrivals totalled almost 39.4m in 2007, up a modest 2.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). The growth rate is slightly weaker then BMI had previously forecast and represents around half the rate of growth achieved in 2006. Arrivals from Romania the key source market were down marginally compared with the previous year, while the number of visitors from Slovakia grew nearly 6% y-o-y. The growth rate in arrivals from Austria though continues to remain strong, up almost 10% y-o-y. After a decline in outbound Hungarian traveller numbers in 2006, there was a rebound in 2007, with Hungarian travellers abroad totalling around 17.3mn, up 4% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
While the Hungarian economy continues to
recover from its fiscal tightening hangover, we caution that a sharper than previously expected slowdown in economic growth in the US and eurozone will present a further downside risk to the economy in 2008. However, a marked improvement in Hungarys public finances will merit a resumption of spending programmes and possible tax cuts, which would be supportive of our current growth forecast of 2.9% in 2008. In line with further downward revisions to economic forecasts in key source markets, particularly the eurozone, BMI has lowered the growth rates for foreign visitor arrivals to Hungary over the forecast period. Compared with 2007, we now expect even weaker growth in arrivals this year (to under 2% y-oy), with mild recovery in 2009 and 2010. Growth in international tourism receipts (in US dollar terms) is also forecast to slow in the short term, as growth in visitor arrivals weakens and recent gains by the Hungarian forint against the US dollar are reversed.
Hospitality
Data for 2007 show continuing weakness in the hospitality sector, with the number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments up just 1% y-o-y to around 19.9mn. Tourist nights accounted for by international visitors totalled just over 10mn (or some 51% of the total) and were largely unchanged compared with the previous year. As in recent years, the number of nights by German tourists continued to decline, falling about 8% y-o-y. Tourist nights accounted for by two other key markets, Austria and the UK, were also down compared with a year earlier, with the number of nights by UK tourists recording a particularly marked fall of 16% y-o-y. Despite poor overall growth in the sector, the average occupancy rate of hotel rooms was up slightly in 2007 at 49.8%. Occupancy rates in four- and five-star hotels also remained relatively high at 56.8% and 68.4% respectively.
Budapest Ferihegy International Airport
The largest airport in Hungary, Budapest Ferihegy International Airport, recorded 4% y-o-y growth in passenger numbers in 2007 a similar growth rate to that achieved a year earlier with nearly 8.6mn passengers. The number of passengers travelling with traditional carriers rose 5% y-o-y to just over 5.2mn, while the number of low-cost passengers was around 2.2mn, up just 0.4% from 2006. August was the busiest month of 2007, with Budapest Airport handling 977,913 passengers (also representing the busiest month to date in the history of the airport).
Malév Hungarian Airlines
The route network of the national flag carrier Malév Hungarian Airlines is set to grow with the addition of new American destinations. The oneworld founder airline, American Airlines, will add the Malév commercial code to 12 of its flights from May 2008. As a result, Malév passengers are able to book seats on North American routes directly, with the connections integrating into the direct Malév Budapest-New York service (re-starting in May 2008). In addition, starting from March 2008, Malév began a twice a day service between Budapest and Cluj-Napoca (the most important business and cultural centre in Transylvania, Romania).
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