2010-01-23 00:08:01 -
Fitch Ratings has affirmed FPL Energy National Wind, LLC's (the Opco) $365 million senior secured indebtedness due 2024 at 'BBB'. Fitch has also affirmed FPL Energy National Wind Portfolio, LLC's (the Holdco) $100 million senior secured indebtedness due 2019 at 'BB'.
The Rating Outlook for the Opco is Stable. The Outlook for Holdco is Negative.
The Negative Outlook for Holdco reflects its particular vulnerability to low wind resource scenarios due to its reliance on cash flow from Opco, and its diminished level of financial cushion for the rating category.
This is further amplified in light of the expected reduction in the debt service reserve from one year to six months, which will significantly reduce liquidity available to both classes of debt in
the event of further poor performance. Although the portfolio has underperformed relative to sponsor's base case projections, the results are consistent with original Fitch analytic scenarios.
The Opco is a portfolio of nine operating wind farms with an aggregate capacity of approximately 533.5 MW. Each project company is wholly-owned by the Opco and is otherwise unencumbered with project-level indebtedness. All of the output of each wind farm is committed under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with counterparties that are unaffiliated with the Opco. Under the agreements, the Opco generally receives a fixed-energy price for all energy produced by the wind farm, and the counterparty generally pays all costs associated with transmission and scheduling. Distributions from the Opco are the Holdco's sole source of revenues. The Holdco owns 100% of the Opco and, in turn, is a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of FPL Group Capital, Inc. (FPL Group, rated 'A' with a Negative Outlook by Fitch).
Opco DSCRs were 1.45 times (x) and 1.42x in 2007 and 2008, respectively, versus sponsor base case projections of 1.72x and 1.70x, respectively.
Consolidated Holdco DSCRs were 1.09x and 1.07x in 2007 and 2008, respectively, versus sponsor base case projections of 1.29x and 1.28x, respectively. The diminished DSCRs are a direct result of lower net capacity factors and higher operating costs than projected in the sponsor base case.
Portfolio availability averaged 94% in 2007 and 2008, 3% lower than sponsor base case projections due to maintenance and repairs at two of the wind farms. Fitch does not envision these to be recurring problems; availability in 2009 through third quarter matches base case projections (97%). Net capacity factors adjusted for availability suggest long-term average production (i.e. P50) is around 3% below the wind consultant's forecast.
Based on recent performance, Fitch now expects that long-term net capacity factors will be approximately around 4% lower than in the original sponsor base case, while operating costs will continue to be at or slightly higher than current levels. Notably, Fitch's initial rating analysis imposed a 5% haircut in production to allow for errors in the wind assessment and other technical assumptions. Accordingly, Fitch feels that the portfolio's expected production remains within the bounds of our original analysis. Fitch projects the increased operating costs and decreased capacity factors will negatively affect cash flow and result in Opco DSCRs of about 1.4x-1.5x and consolidated Holdco DSCRs of about 1.1x or lower. However, Fitch notes that the historical performance is at the lower limits of the rating categories for both debt classes.
These rating actions reflect the application of Fitch's current criteria which are available at ' www.fitchratings.com :

' and specifically include the following report: 'Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance', dated Sept. 29, 2009.
Additional information is available at ' www.fitchratings.com :

'.
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Fitch Ratings, New YorkTim Ononiwu, 212-908-0879Cynthis
Howells, 212-908-0685orMedia Relations:Brian Bertsch,
212-908-0549Email:
brian.bertsch@fitchratings.com : mailto:brian.bertsch@fitchratings.com