2008-08-31 01:01:35 - Statistics showing that John McCain at age 72 has more than an 20% chance of dying during his presidency, and a much higher risk of becoming disabled - including with Alzheimer's disease - hang over his choice of a running mate who, at least statistically, is quite likely to succeed him as president, says professor John Banzhaf.

A widely-used mortality risk chart indicates that, of 1000 men McCain's age who are former smokers, over 200 will die in the next five years, roughly the time from now until his presidential term would end.

This does not include any increased risk caused by his episodes of a deadly form of skin cancer.

Naturally, the odds that he will suffer from some disabling condition while in office are much higher, with studies suggesting that the disability rate of persons 70-74 is almost 40%, and among those 75-79, the rate approaches 50%.

While a president's access to excellent around-the-clock medical care and monitoring might tend to reduce these odds, the enormous stresses of the presidency - far greater than those experienced

by most men over the age of 70 - could also increase the odds.

One potentially disabling disease McCain could face is Alzheimer's, where advancing age is the major risk factor, and the odds of coming down with the disease double every five years after the age of 65.

Unfortunately, the minor memory impairments and other mental problems often present during the early stages of Alzheimer's might be barely noticeable and of little consequence in a typical 72-year-old man enjoying retirement or working on a part- or even full-time basis, but they could be catastrophic in a president who must make crucial decisions regarding war, peace, and economics, negotiate with other world leaders, etc.

The 25th Amendment provides for the vice president to assume the duties of the president if he has a disability which makes him "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

It further provides that, if the president does not himself recognize that a physical or mental disability renders him unable, that decision may be made by the Vice President and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments.

This might occur, for example, if a president came down with Alzheimer's but refused - perhaps because of the disease and/or reluctance to accept the diagnosis - to agree to relinquish his powers.

The odds that Barack Obama, at age 47, would die in the next five years are only about 3% if he is classified as a former smoker (since he reportedly has quit with, at most, an occasional relapse), and only about 5% if he is classified as a current smoker. This is in stark contrast to McCain's 5-year mortality risk of over 20%.

Indeed, both men would have a much longer expected lifetime if they had never smoked.

For every 1000 men at age 75, 449 will die in the next ten years if they were never smokers, 519 former smokers will die, and the deaths among 1000 smokers would be 667.

For a man of 45, the corresponding 10-year death rates are 35 for never smokers, 49 for former smokers, and 91 for men who are current smokers.

John Banzhaf is a professor at George Washington University known in part for his statistical-type analyses ("The Banzhaf Index") as well as his very successful work against smoking.

He stresses that he does not express or even imply any opinions regarding the four major-party candidates for high office, and that this analysis is designed simply to highlight some statistical factors regarding the candidates.

PROFESSOR JOHN F. BANZHAF III
Professor of Public Interest Law
George Washington University Law School
FAMRI Dr. William Cahan Distinguished Professor
FELLOW, World Technology Network
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