2010-03-04 14:12:14 - Country Report Myanmar March 2010 has been added to Reportbuyer.com

Outlook for 2010-11

* The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC, the ruling military junta) is planning to hold an election in 2010. However, its objective appears to be that of legitimising its hold on power.
* The junta has been holding talks with its main opponent, Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), but there is little likelihood that she will be permitted to play a direct role in the election.
* Several Western governments, most notably that of the US, will push ahead with a policy of engagement with the SPDC. However, sanctions will remain in place in the near future.
* The junta will continue to run wide fiscal deficits in

2010-11. Despite efforts to reduce tax evasion, the government's revenue base remains small, and it will continue to spend heavily on large projects that benefit the military regime.
* After weakening in 2009 owing to a combination of domestic factors and the impact of the global recession, Myanmar's economy will be sluggish in 2010-11.
* Consumer price inflation slowed sharply in 2009 as a consequence of falling fuel and food prices, but it will pick up again in 2010-11.
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Monthly review

* Shortly before the recent release from house arrest of the NLD vice-chairman, Tin Oo, speculation mounted that Aung San Suu Kyi would be released later this year.
* Despite recent claims by the SPDC chairman, Senior General Than Shwe, that the planned election will be free and fair, the NLD does not appear to be under any illusion that it will be.
* During his recent visit to the country, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tomas Ojea Quintana, is thought to have urged the junta to allow all political and ethnic groups the right to contest the election.
* The junta appears to have embarked on a privatisation drive ahead of the election. In the past month or so there have been a number of reports of planned sales of state assets.
* Fertiliser output growth remained strong in late 2009, suggesting that the agricultural sector has been fairly buoyant. There has been sharp growth in rice exports in recent months.
* Consumer price inflation stayed fairly low on a year-on-year basis in late 2009. According to the latest official data, inflation stood at just 0.2% in October.
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