2013-03-07 16:27:08 -
70% of the jobs lost will be for people with some college or better.
The Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce finds that of the estimated
746,222 jobs lost by 2014 due to sequestration of federal spending; over 70
percent of those jobs lost will be for workers with postsecondary education and
training.
That is, in the 21 months immediately following the sequester, a total of
521,000 jobs will be lost for workers with postsecondary education and training
beyond high school. This translates into 129,000 jobs lost for people with some
college or a postsecondary vocational certificate; 86,000 jobs lost for those
with an Associate's degree; 207,000 jobs lost for Bachelor's degree holders and
99,000 jobs for those with graduate degrees.
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|Source: Author's estimates based on Fuller, Stephen S. and Chmura Economics & |
|Analytics, The Economic Impact of the Budget Control Act of 2011 on DOD and |
|Non-DOD Agencies, Aerospace Industries Association, July 17, 2012 |
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Twenty percent of all jobs in the sequester will be lost in the one of the most
innovative and productive sectors in the economy: STEM. Science, Engineering,
Mathematics and Computer and Technology jobs will account for 139,000 jobs lost.
This is especially alarming when we consider that traditional STEM occupations
are just 5 percent of the economy overall.
Many of the jobs lost between 2013 and 2014 will also come from the professional
and business services industries, education and administrative support services.
Job losses in these labor-intensive sectors promise to add increased pressure on
already strapped resources.
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|Source: Author's estimates based Current Population Survey (CPS), 2012 and |
|Fuller, Stephen S. and Chmura Economics & Analytics, The Economic Impact of |
|the Budget Control Act of 2011 on DOD and Non-DOD Agencies, Aerospace |
|Industries Association, July 17, 2012 |
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The most educated will also be hard hit. 40 percent of all jobs lost to the
sequester will be for people with a bachelor's degree or better. This is
because government employees, (federal state and local) tend to be very well
educated. Close to 50% of them have a bachelor's degree or higher compared to
31% for the private sector. Moreover, these workers tend to be relatively older
than for the nation as a whole which leads us to two observations:
* The more educated workforce bearing the brunt of sequestration is better
equipped to find alternative employment, given that bachelor-degreed workers
are three times less likely to be unemployed than high school dropouts, and
* The more educated older workforce have previously weathered the storm of the
Great Recession and have a reduced ability to rely on pensions, 401Ks and
social security as a safety net.
The Budget Control Act of 2011 will lead to spending cuts of $1.2 trillion
between March 2013 and March 2021. Though the overall immediate macroeconomic
impact of sequestration is subdued as GDP is forecast to shrink by a mere 0.6
percentage points in 2013; half of $6.4B cut in federal spending for 2013 will
come from defense discretionary spending, 35% from non-defense discretionary
spending 15% from mandatory spending.
The effects of sequestration will arrive in two waves. First, budget cuts will
be felt directly through cuts in military and defense spending, reductions in
education spending and STEM research; and indirectly through reductions in
government contracts to the private sector, layoffs, furloughs and reductions in
disposable income.
High education areas like Washington DC, Northern Virginia, Maryland, Colorado
and New York will be disproportionately impacted.
Here's the detail.
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Less High Some Associate's Bachelor's Graduate Total
than school college degree degree degrees
high
school
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Sales and 6,520 52,490 43,340 23,020 36,810 6,380 168,550
Office Support
STEM 1,110 10,340 12,880 13,060 60,630 40,760 138,790
Blue Collar 25,600 63,560 23,590 14,020 9,940 1,730 138,440
Managerial and 1,650 16,130 16,390 11,320 56,420 28,810 130,720
Professional
Office
Food and 8,910 32,710 25,980 16,440 23,850 4,590 112,470
Personal
Services
Healthcare 150 1,300 1,770 5,300 7,010 6,490 22,020
practitioners
and Technical
Community 210 1,700 2,130 1,660 8,280 5,430 19,410
Services and
Arts
Education 40 600 700 490 3,530 4,290 9,660
Healthcare 470 2,010 1,820 1,140 610 120 6,160
support
Total 44,650 180,840 128,590 86,460 207,080 98,600 746,220
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Source: Author's estimates based Current Population Survey (CPS), 2012 and
Fuller, Stephen S. and Chmura Economics & Analytics, The Economic Impact of the
Budget Control Act of 2011 on DOD and Non-DOD Agencies, Aerospace Industries
Association, July 17, 2012
The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce is an
independent, nonprofit research and policy institute that studies the link
between individual goals, education and training curricula and career pathways.
For more information, visit:
cew.georgetown.edu. Follow us on Twitter
@CntrEdWrkfrce and on Facebook.
Media Contact: Ana Castanon
202.687.4922
agc54@georgetown.edu
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(ii) they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and
originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Georgetown University via Thomson Reuters ONE
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