2007-06-20 19:36:05 -

BEIJING (AP) - Trends in the latest data on energy consumption and cement making indicate China has overtaken the United States as the world's top emitter of carbon dioxide, a Dutch environmental research group says.
According to a report released Tuesday by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China overtook the U.S. in emissions of CO2

_ a main greenhouse gas and the biggest man-made contributor to global warming _ by 8 percent in 2006.
While China was 2 percent below the United States in 2005, voracious coal consumption and increased cement production caused the numbers to rise rapidly, the group said.
«It's an expression of their fast industrial production activities and their fast development,» Dr. Jos G. J. Olivier, the agency's senior scientist who compiled the figures, said in a telephone interview Wednesday. The agency is independent but paid by the Dutch government to advise it on environmental policy.
Telephone calls to the State Environmental Protection Agency and the National Development and Reform Commission, the Cabinet-level economic planning agency, were not answered Wednesday.
Earlier figures indicated China would likely surpass the U.S. in greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2009, although other predictions said that could happen this year.
Chinese environmental officials have said that while total emissions are going up, those are still a quarter of those of the United States on a per capita basis. China's population of 1.3 billion people is four times that of the United States.
The study said China, which relies on coal for two-thirds of its energy needs and manufactures 44 percent of the world's cement, produced 6,200 million metric tons of CO2 in 2006. In comparison, the U.S. produces 5,800 million metric tons, it said.
Olivier said there was not much chance China will now lose its lead.
«China's growth will saturate at some point,» he said. But «for now, we don't see a trend (toward) this saturation yet.
Olivier said the research was based on data on fossil fuel consumption from the BP Review of Energy 2007, compiled by the British oil company, and cement production data through 2006 published by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Those are the only two emissions sources «that can be estimated accurately and where there's fairly recent data,» Olivier said.
John Christensen, head of the United Nations Environment Program's Center on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development in Denmark, said the figures were credible and did not come as a surprise.
«The Dutch agency referred to BP statistics, which is the standard reference tool. We have no reason to doubt that the numbers are right. We have no reason to doubt the methodology,» Christensen said. «It's been stated any times that China will overtake the U.S. in emissions.
Other sources of CO2 such as deforestation and the flaring of gas in oil and gas production are not included in the data. They also do not include other sources of greenhouse gases such as methane from fuel production and agriculture, and nitrous oxide from industrial processes.
Dr Fatih Birol, chief economist of the Paris-based International Energy Agency also said the findings were not surprising, given China's economic growth of better than 9 percent annually over the past 25 years.
His agency had estimated that China would overtake the U.S. before 2010 but in November sharpened their forecast to 2007 or 2008.
«At the end of the day, it's very important to find ways ... to slow down CO2 emissions growth,» Birol said. «The rest of the world with the help of China needs to find ways for China to reduce CO2 emissions.
China has fallen under growing international pressure to take more forceful measures to curb releases of greenhouse gases.
Earlier this month, it unveiled its first national program to combat global warming with promises to rein in greenhouse gas production.
While the program offered few new concrete targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it outlined steps China would take to meet a previously announced government goal of improving overall energy efficiency in 2010 by 20 percent over 2005's level.

But Beijing also indicated an unwillingness to enforce mandatory emissions caps.
Ma Kai, the minister heading the National Development and Reform Commission, said China was a developing country and economic development would be a priority _ although efforts would be made to raise awareness of the problem of global warming.
It is currently a signatory to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty that caps the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted from power plants and factories in industrialized countries. But it is exempt from its restrictions because it is a developing country _ part of the reason why the United States and Australia have refused to sign on.
Yang Ailun, climate and energy campaign manager of Greenpeace China, called on the country to take more steps to protect the environment.
«Due to the urgency of climate change, China has the responsibility to take immediate actions to reform its energy structure and curb its CO2 emissions,» Yang said in a statement.
But, she added, other cities like Washington, Brussels and Tokyo also were responsible because many of their products are made in China, contributing to industrialization and pollution.
«All the West has done is export a great slice of its carbon footprint to China and make China the world's factory,» she said. «This trend has kept the price of projects in the west down but lead to a climate disaster in the long term.
Associated Press writer Arthur Max in Amsterdam contributed to the story.