2008-09-25 08:56:59 -
Chile Oil and Gas Report Q3 2008 - a new market research report on http://www.companiesandmarkets.com www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/Chile-Oil-and- ..
The latest Chile Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.63% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2012, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.84mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.28mn b/d in 2007. It should rise to around
8.16mn b/d by 2012. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed an estimated 197bcm, with demand of 267bcm targeted for 2012, representing growth of 35.6% between 2007 and 2012. Production of an estimated 208bcm in 2007 should reach 282bcm in 2012, which implies end-period net exports of around 15bcm per annum. Chile´s share of gas consumption in 2007 was an estimated 4.02%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.35%. In Q108, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$92.64 per barrel up around 9% from the Q407 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$102 by the middle of March, slipping back towards US$96/bbl later in the month. The estimated Q108 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$96.54 for Brent, US$97.31 for WTI and US$93.44/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are revised upwards from BMIs last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$81 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$74 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$84.71, WTI averaging US$85.63/bbl, and Urals at US$81.88/bbl. Chilean real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 4.0% for 2008, down from an estimated 5.1% in 2007. We are assuming 4.6% growth in 2009, 4.8% in 2010, followed by 4.3% in 2011 and 4.0% in 2012. State oil and gas company ENAP is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 5,000b/d by 2012, with the country expected to pump an average 8,000b/d in 2008. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 296,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 291,000b/d by 2012. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.5bcm in 2007 to 1.7bcm by 2011, falling back to 1.6bcm in 2012, with net imports of 10bcm required by 2012. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 30.6%, with demand rising steadily from 255,000b/d to 333,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 3.0% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to peak at around 1.8bcm in 2009/10, before declining steadily to 1.2bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 97%, this provides an import requirement rising from 6.4bcm to 14.4bcm during the 10-year period. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the Appendix of this report, which provides global, regional and countryspecific projections. Chiles joint last place with Mexico in BMIs updated Upstream Business Environment rating is achieved in spite of high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and an investor-friendly country risk profile. There is little likelihood of a move much further up the rankings, but Chile should be able to break away from Mexico during the next few quarters. The country fares rather better in BMIs updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with sixth place reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, regulatory environment and attractive country risk rating. It is sandwiched between Peru and Venezuela in the league table, with the potential to move higher.
www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/Chile-Oil-and- ..
