2010-09-08 12:54:06 -
Brazil Business Forecast Report Q4 2010 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
Brazil´s economy continues to be the envy of many a developing and developed state, with strong domestic demand and rapidly recovering investment flows pushing real GDP growth to the highest level in 15 years in Q110. In the Q410 Brazil Business Forecast Report, we analyse the dynamics driving the country´s growth and anticipate the challenges ahead as attention shifts from preventing overheating to the likely consequences of a slowdown in global growth in the final stages of 2010 and 2011 on Latin America´s largest economy. With October´s election fast approaching, we also outline the impact of the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections on the country´s medium-term political and economic outlooks, assessing the key challenges awaiting President Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva´s successor. Dilma Rousseff, presidential candidate of the Partido dos Trabalhadores, has taken the lead in opinion polls ahead of October´s general election for the first time, suggesting that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva´s efforts to ensure that his appointed successor replaces him in office are increasingly starting to bear fruit. With the start of official campaigning soon approaching, Rousseff has opened up a clear lead over her foremost challenger, José Serra of the main opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira, with latest polls putting her on 40% to Serra´s 35%. While we believe that momentum is increasingly starting to swing behind Rousseff´s presidential campaign, we reiterate our long-held view that a major shift in the country´s economic policy mix is distinctly unlikely regardless of the victor in October´s vote.
Brazil has reinforced its credentials as one of the world´s fastest growing economies, with newly released real GDP data beating expectations to grow by an impressive 9.0% year-on-year in Q110, the quickest rate in 15 years. In seasonally adjusted terms, too, the country´s economic recovery continues to defy the problems besetting more developed economies, with quarter-on-quarter growth recorded at 2.7%, despite upward revisions to both the Q309 and Q409 readings (from 1.7% to 2.2% and 2.0% to 2.3% respectively). As such, we believe that even increasingly strident efforts to cool the pace of economic growth will be unable to bring down the full year rate of expansion to our previous 5.3% real GDP forecast for 2010, and are revising up our projection to a still-below-consensus 6.0%. However, with the key drivers of Q110 growth, namely investment and private consumption, likely to cool later in the year as monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are withdrawn, our outlook for the Brazilian economic growth remains below consensus over the medium term.
T he FIFA World Cup in 2014 and Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 present enormous opportunities for investors across a wide range of industries and are set to anchor foreign investment into Brazil over the long term. However, while the political will to meet the infrastructural challenges certainly exists, the implications of increased public funding further raise fiscal uncertainty over the medium term. As such, we will be looking for the new president to make efforts to share much of the burden with the private sector. Success in this regard will be predicated on Brazil´s ability to ensure a transparent and open licensing round for foreign participants, in our view, which will involve tackling heightened levels of corruption in the economy. Any improvements in the business environment associated with these sporting events bode well for foreign companies looking to take advantage of the country´s massive economic potential going forward.
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