2012-11-02 22:22:11 - Incumbent Barack Obama is like to win a comfortable 284-254 electoral win in the US presidential election. Both Obama and his opponent Mitt Romney are facing an overwhelming lack of the positive emotions that will be needed to motivate the remaining undecideds to turnout to vote.
A polling model from market research firm Hotspex predicts that decreased turnout of currently undecided voters will lead to a 284-254 electoral victory for Barack Obama.
The Hotspex research that generated this prediction examines both the emotional and rational profiles of the voting public. The research indicates that almost universally, voters feel only positive emotions (such as loyalty, respect, optimism, and trust) towards their chosen candidate, and only negative emotions towards the opposition. In fact, the Hotspex research shows that, emotionally, voters for Mitt Romney and voters for Barack Obama have nearly identical feelings towards their chosen candidates, and have nearly identical negative reactions to the opposition.
Of concern for the campaigns is the lack of any real emotions from undecided
voters in swing states. Overall, these voters have high levels of negative feelings (such as uncertainty, frustration, and dissatisfaction) towards both candidates. More importantly, among these same voters the candidates have failed to create any sort of positive emotions such as liking, trust, respect, or optimism.
As the November 6th election date approaches, the candidates have one final chance to change the minds of the few remaining undecided voters. Following the candidates’ responses to Hurricane Sandy, undecided voters’ current dearth of emotions is likely set to change. The political realities for the campaigns are this: They cannot remain negative, because they will be seen as detached and unpresidential. Barring an epic failure in disaster response by the current administration, the campaigns are by necessity forced to play a positive game.
Coincidentally, a positive game may be just the thing to reach the as-of-yet undecided voter. While the negative emotions surrounding the candidate are instrumental in determining which candidate to choose, it is positive emotions such as optimism, trust, and motivation that create the impulse to actually get out and vote. As things currently stand, the Hotspex research shows that barring a shift in the candidates approach, undecided voter turnout in the battleground states will be depressed. Those that do turn out are likely to vote slightly in favor for Barack Obama, leading to a predicted 284-254 electoral win. If either candidate is able to effectively connect on a positive note, however, the number could swing wildly.
About Hotspex Inc.
Hotspex is a leader in applying emotional science to understanding and driving consumer behavior. After six years of R&D, we are the first to scientifically link emotional and rational attributes, allowing marketers to measure and activate target emotional states in their strategies, ideas and executions. For more about Hotspex, please visit www.hotspex.biz