2010-01-09 17:24:53 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bahrain Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research

In BMI's Q209 Business Environment Rating for the 17 countries of the MEA region, Bahrain improved its position to fourth, from equal sixth. While the country's overall score is negatively impacted by the small population, the low-risk economic and political climates and strong pharmaceutical-specific regulatory framework represent major positives for foreign drugmakers, especially given the preference for patented and branded prescription drugs, a relatively generous reimbursement system and the unchallenging distribution network. The population is also growing relatively quickly, which should help to boost future returns, Overall, we expect total drug market spending to increase from US$73.2mn in 2008 to US$97.6mn by 2013, implying a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 5.9%. The demand for healthcare services

is expected to increase considerably, especially as chronic and longterm diseases have come to represent most of the mortality and morbidity burden. For example, according to a February 2009 TradeArabia article, the number of newborn children with type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes rose almost tripled between 1993 and 2008. Similarly, around 26% of Bahraini population presently suffers from hypertension, while asthma has also emerged as a pressing health concern due to worsening air quality. On a positive note, in March 2009 the Bahraini health minister announced that the number of patients presenting with sickle cell anaemia and thalassemia fell as a result of the government's pre-marriage screening programmes and improved treatment of sufferers. The long-term health policy instilled by the state not only includes designated hospital units for sickle cell anaemic children, but also plans to finance additional facilities to treat adults. BMI believes that Bahrain's successful strategy for preventing congenital diseases will be attractive to multinational firms involved in genetic sequencing and anaemic disease management. On an economic front, the news is similarly encouraging. While there are substantial macroeconomic risks in 2009 - but assuming an oil price bounce in the second half of the year - Bahrain should continue to record positive real growth rates. Nevertheless, we have revised down our forecasts for Bahraini growth to 3.5% in 2009 from our previous projection of 4.3%. The changes were made on the premise that the services-oriented economies are more exposed to global consumer demand and liquidity shortages, and will therefore be affected to a larger degree. Against this backdrop, we are forecasting consumer spending growth of 3.0% for 2009 and 2010, rising to 4.0% in 2011-2012 and then 5.0% in 2013. This should also work towards supporting the development of the over-the-counter (OTC) medicines market, from a currently low base of US$3.7mn. OTCs will also be boosted by the recent Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-wide proposals to introduce harmonised traditional and alternative medicines legislation, put forward in response to the increase in the use of herbal treatments.

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